U.S. stock futures are indicating a modestly negative open for the S&P 500 early Wednesday, September 2, as investors digest escalating military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, surging oil prices, and a slate of economic data.
At the last check, S&P 500 futures were down 0.07% to 7,637.50. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.19% to 29,069.50, while Dow Jones futures remained flat at 52,828.00 and Russell 2000 futures dropped 0.14%.
The conflict in the Middle East is driving volatility in energy markets. President Donald Trump ordered new military strikes on Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets, including air-defense systems and radar sites, following attempts to attack commercial shipping. In retaliation, Iran launched missile and drone strikes on U.S. positions in Jordan, Bahrain, and Iraq. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that if Iran cannot export oil, “no one will be able to export oil.” In response, Brent crude jumped 4.05% to $95.28 a barrel, and WTI crude advanced to $90.49 a barrel.
On the macro front, traders are awaiting the August ADP national employment report at 8:15 a.m. ET, July’s factory orders data at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book release at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Wednesday’s earnings docket includes major reports from Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO), Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW), and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (NYSE: HPE).
Despite the short-term noise, some analysts remain constructive on the market’s fundamentals. Senior Economist Professor Jeremy Siegel praised Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s recent Jackson Hole speech, noting that Warsh is refocusing on broader indicators such as money supply and bank credit. Siegel emphasized that bank credit is expanding at a 7%–8% annual rate and the federal funds rate is around 3.6%. He also pointed to strong earnings from AI leaders like Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) as a source of support.
On the prediction market front, the Polymarket contract for the “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 2?” currently reflects a 53% chance of a higher open. This follows the previous day’s contract, which resolved “Down” and recorded $75,175 in total trading volume.
