Options Market Overpriced Earnings Moves This Summer, Salesforce Outperformed Expectations

An analysis of U.S. stocks reporting earnings from early July through mid-September 2026 found that options contracts were priced for significantly more volatility than stocks actually delivered. The report card, compiled by EarningsWatcher and published by Benzinga, measured the expected move implied by option prices against the actual stock movement on earnings report dates.

The analysis covered 1,811 earnings events involving optionable stocks over $5. The data indicates that the options market asked for roughly 22% more movement this summer compared to the same period in 2025, while stocks delivered only about 4% more movement. When grading each stock against its own historical record, the season scored poorly, with stocks clearing their expected move 37 times out of 100. This is a decline from the normal rate of 43 times and ranks as the fourth-worst season since 2022.

The report highlights that the discrepancy was driven by a higher median expected move priced by the market, which rose from 8.0% to 9.7%, while the typical delivered move remained around 7.7%. The worst sector performance was in financials, where banks and insurers cleared their expected move only 23% of the time, compared to a historical norm of 35%.

Specific examples cited include Moody’s Corp (NYSE: MCO), which was priced for a ±7.7% move on July 22 but only swung 1.6%. In contrast, Salesforce Inc (NYSE: CRM) reported on August 26. Options priced a ±7.2% move, but the stock swung 23.8% at its peak and closed up 22.6%, marking its biggest earnings-day move since 2020.

The analysis also notes a seasonal pattern where calm markets historically correlate with higher odds of stocks covering their expected move. However, this summer featured a calm market with a VIX below 21, yet stocks still underperformed the market's pricing, breaking the historical trend.

Looking ahead, the article suggests that stocks which delivered significant surprises this summer, such as Salesforce, may see their expected moves drift down about 7% in the coming quarter. The report notes that historically, stocks that have shocked the market often see their expected moves rise by approximately 10% into the next earnings report.