Macro investor Jordi Visser, a former Morgan Stanley executive, has argued that investors are overlooking a potential crisis in the banking sector, which he has dubbed the "bankpocalypse." In a recent YouTube video, Visser suggested that AI agents could disrupt banks and payment networks in a manner similar to how AI coding tools impacted software companies.
Visser contends that the current market environment is not indicative of a bubble comparable to the dot-com era. He noted that nominal gross domestic product is running near 6.5%, and he would only view yields as problematic if they climbed well above 7%. He also pointed out that the composition of the S&P 500 has changed significantly since 2008; while big tech companies accounted for just over 10% of the index during the financial crisis, they now make up approximately 56%.
The investor compared the revenue growth of major automakers and homebuilders to the explosive growth seen in companies like Nvidia and Micron Technology. He noted that in 2015, Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., and the four largest homebuilders generated $333 billion in sales, a figure that grew to $432 billion by the present day. Conversely, Nvidia and Micron saw their combined revenue soar from $21 billion to $535 billion over the same period.
Visser analyzed the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, which is closely tracked by the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSE: KBE). He observed that the index closed below its 200-day moving average, a technical signal he views as significant. He expects banking disruption to become a central market story in the first quarter of the following year.
According to Visser, the primary driver of this disruption will be AI agents—software assistants that act on a person’s behalf—which require instant settlement. He argued that money sitting in transit creates risk, making speed a "safety feature." He highlighted the 2021 GameStop frenzy as a catalyst for regulators to shorten stock settlement to one business day.
Visser expressed a "zero chance" that Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) and Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) will win in the long run, comparing them to BlackBerry during the early iPhone era. He cited Joseph Chalom, CEO of SharpLink and a former BlackRock executive, who estimates that AI agents will handle about $4 trillion in fees for the financial industry over the next decade. Chalom views Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) as a potential trusted rail for this activity. Visser emphasized that the thesis rests on whether AI agents can earn enough user trust to move real money.
