Traders are closely watching the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (KMSP) weather data for the November 9, 2026, climate day, which is currently trending cooler than expected. The current observed maximum temperature stands at 61°F at 2:53 PM local time, a reading captured from the Kalshi Seatfeed S2 pool. This figure is significant because it sits directly at the threshold for the high-temperature settlement contract. Since the contract pays out based on whether the official daily high exceeds this level, the current reading implies the market is pricing in a scenario where the day's peak heat may struggle to break through, effectively treating the contract as trading at or near the lower strike.
However, the temperature progression suggests a potential shift in momentum. According to the Kalshi Seatfeed S4 pool, the 6-hour maximum temperature recorded at 5:53 PM local time was 59°F, following a morning low of 37.9°F. This upward trajectory indicates a warming trend that could allow the daily high to climb further before the day's end. If the thermometer continues to rise, the current 61°F reading could be eclipsed, validating the bullish thesis that the contract is currently undervalued.
Source: NOAA/NWS weather observations at KMSP (the settlement station)
What would change this read
The bullish outlook would be immediately invalidated if the official daily high temperature for 2026-11-09 settles below 61°F, suggesting the early warming trend was insufficient to overcome the cooler morning conditions.
