Investing commentator Joseph Carlson argues that the rise of AI agents capable of shopping, booking trips, and transacting could negatively impact Booking Holdings and Intuit while benefiting Meta Platforms and Microsoft.

Carlson, speaking on his YouTube show, framed the thesis as a rebuttal to Citrini Research’s February 22 report titled "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis." He contends that companies that "sell friction" are most exposed to this shift. According to Carlson, if a general-purpose AI agent can absorb the friction of searching for hotels, comparing terms, and making reservations, the value of companies facilitating these tasks diminishes.

Carlson highlighted Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BKNG) as a primary example. He noted that Booking spent roughly $8.2 billion on marketing in 2025, which accounted for approximately 30% of its revenue. He expressed that he is now more concerned about Booking than when he sold his shares. This concern extends to other travel companies; on Wednesday, Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ: ABNB), Tripadvisor Inc. (NASDAQ: TRIP), and Expedia Group Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) saw stock declines of more than 4% and 6%, respectively, as investors weighed the potential for AI agents like Meta’s Muse to take over travel search and booking.

Carlson applied a similar logic to Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU). He argued that if an AI agent already knows a customer’s finances and can collect documents, it could automate the work currently guided by TurboTax. He stated he is "far more concerned" about Intuit shareholders than when he sold the stock, suggesting that the value provided by TurboTax and Credit Karma is being "compressed."

In contrast, Carlson believes Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) are better positioned to benefit. He suggested Meta is insulated from the agentic threat because of its advertising model; if an AI agent handles the shopping that follows a social media post, Meta becomes the "new toll collector" taking a percentage of every transaction. Microsoft’s advantage lies in its workplace identity and permissions, which Carlson calls the "agentic operating system." Microsoft reports that nearly 40 million agents have been registered through Agent 365.

Carlson stated that he still owns both Meta and Microsoft and has been buying Meta "like crazy." He suggested that Microsoft could remain insulated from disruption even without its leading AI model lab, implying that economic winners may not necessarily need the top-ranked model.