Market research platform Bull Theory has responded to recent developments in quantum computing, stating that while progress has narrowed the gap to Bitcoin's security, the network is not currently at risk. The analysis focused on a breakthrough announced by Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) regarding a "key bottleneck" in quantum computing known as magic states.
Bull Theory noted that Google’s new technique reduces error rates by a factor of 40 while achieving 99.9% accuracy. However, the platform emphasized that the technology still needs to be demonstrated at a larger scale to be viable.
Regarding Bitcoin specifically, Bull Theory cited Google Quantum AI’s March white paper, which estimated that breaking Bitcoin’s security would require roughly 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits. The platform pointed out that current hardware is far from this capability. Google’s Willow chip, announced in December 2024, contains 105 qubits. IBM reported 70 logical qubits, while QuEra Computing Inc. has executed algorithms with up to 96 logical qubits.
Looking toward the future, hardware roadmaps indicate IBM targets 200 logical qubits by 2029 and 2,000 by 2033. Bull Theory concluded that "Bitcoin is not in trouble today" because no machine is close to the required capacity, though it acknowledged that the gap is getting smaller.
The article also referenced a theoretical risk involving quantum computers potentially deriving private keys from public keys in 9 minutes. It noted that an estimated 6.26 million BTC is currently held in quantum-vulnerable addresses. Security expert Jameson Lopp suggested it could take at least another decade for a quantum computer powerful enough to decode a Bitcoin public key to become a reality. Additionally, bettors on a Polygon-based Polymarket market assigned only a 1% chance of this possibility by year-end, and 11% by the end of 2027.
As of the writing of the article, Bitcoin was trading at $82,058.35, up 1.50% in the last 24 hours.
