Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) research has identified a widening divide in the U.S. job market between younger workers with and without college degrees. According to a report published on Sunday, workers aged 22 to 34 who never graduated from college are experiencing unusually strong employment conditions, with unemployment rates near the lowest points in two decades. Conversely, younger college graduates are facing a tougher market.
The analysis, conducted by Burning Glass Institute chief economist Gad Levanon, compares current employment trends against historical data since 2003. This comparison reveals that younger college graduates are performing near the weaker end of their historical range, while workers without degrees remain near some of their strongest readings. Despite this divergence, college graduates still hold a lower unemployment rate in absolute terms. For workers aged 25 to 54, the unemployment rate averaged 2.7% for degree holders over the 12 months through July, compared with 3.6% for those with some college education and 4.7% for those with only a high-school diploma.
The report attributes this shift to a rapidly growing supply of people with bachelor’s degrees and a rapid decline in the number of workers without degrees. Goldman Sachs research has previously pointed to weaker employment trends in several industries exposed to artificial intelligence and greater pressure on junior workers. However, the report notes that automation's impact on blue-collar and service work remains an open question.
