Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund LLC, stated that Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has "underinvested in marketing forever" in a post on X on Saturday. Black contrasted Tesla's strategy with that of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), arguing that Apple dominates the cell phone business by pairing a great product with great marketing.
Black argued that within three to five years, every ride-hailing service will offer both chauffeured and self-driving options across its products, including Uber Black, Uber X, and Uber XL. In this scenario, he said unsupervised autonomy becomes a commodity, meaning it no longer sets one company apart. He predicted that Chinese and other manufacturers could take Tesla's business if it does not turn its first-mover advantage into a lasting edge through "superior advertising and execution."
Black previously estimated Apple’s annual advertising spend at about $2 billion and noted that Apple spent hundreds of millions promoting the first iPhone in 2007. In August, he said Tesla cannot match Apple’s $4.4 trillion market value by relying on word of mouth and posts on X alone. He tied the lack of marketing to Tesla's weak five-year stock performance, noting that Apple shares have gained 24.22% year to date, while Tesla has fallen 12.64%.
Black emphasized that Tesla is known for doing little traditional advertising, even as it expands beyond EVs into robotaxis and its Optimus humanoid robot. He stated that Tesla lacks the marketing leadership to support this push, despite CEO Elon Musk saying these ventures could be trillion-dollar revenue drivers.
