Investors betting on the Federal Reserve's next move are signaling a decisive pivot toward tightening, with the probability of a rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting now approaching 90%. According to data from Polymarket, the top outcome for the Fed's action is a 25 basis point hike, which is currently trading at 86.5% probability. This figure, updated on November 15, 2026, reflects the market's current assessment of the central bank's trajectory.
This probability is corroborated by the Kalshi FedWatch signals, which show a similar consensus. The signals indicate an 85% probability of a hike and project a median upper bound for the Fed funds rate of 4.25%. The convergence of these two data sources suggests that the market views the current economic landscape as one where the Fed is prioritizing its inflation-fighting mandate over easing.
Source: Polymarket FOMC 2026-12-09 market data
What would change this read
A shift in market sentiment would require a significant deterioration in inflation metrics or a sudden recessionary shock that forces the Fed to pivot back to easing, effectively crushing the current 85%+ probability of a rate hike.
