According to a report from Benzinga, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has historically gained ground following only two of the past 14 Federal Reserve decisions. The article outlines market expectations and potential scenarios for the asset ahead of the upcoming meeting.
Market consensus currently prices a 25-basis-point interest rate hike with 89% probability, according to data from Polymarket. Approximately $193 million has been traded on this specific decision. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has mapped out five scenarios for the market's reaction, noting that a surprise hold is viewed as the most painful outcome for stocks, potentially causing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) to decline between 1.25% and 1.75%.
The article highlights that the press conference remarks from Fed Governor Bowman, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET, may be more significant than the hike itself. Macro analyst Robin Brooks argues that markets are pricing not just today's hike, but another 25 basis points by December and two more in 2027. Brooks suggests that the press conference will likely sound dovish relative to market expectations due to the Governor's aversion to forward guidance.
On-chain analyst Ali Martinez posted a thread on X arguing that a surprise hold could trigger a rally across risk assets. Martinez suggested that if the Fed does not hike rates, Bitcoin could push from $75,000 back above $82,000 as investors rapidly reposition. The analyst framed this as a political calculation, noting that former President Trump needs a win before the midterms and that another rate hike could add economic pressure heading into November.
The contrarian case for Bitcoin is presented against the 89% market odds and the failure of the CLARITY Act on Tuesday, which removed one of Bitcoin's two main near-term catalysts.
