Market participants are pricing in a continued ascent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), with the KXCPINDEX settlement statistic climbing to 337.511 in October. This figure, derived from the all items, not seasonally adjusted index (1982-84=100), represents a clear upward trajectory from 336.94 in September and 334.98 in August. This progression indicates persistent inflationary pressure that is being factored into current market expectations.
This trend is reinforced by data on the Cleveland Fed's median CPI, which serves as a core inflation measure. The annualized monthly change for October 2026 has accelerated significantly to 3.66%, up from 2.81% in September. This acceleration in the median CPI suggests that core inflation remains sticky, providing further support for the bullish outlook on the broader index.
Source: SEC EDGAR daily Form 4 filing index, 2026-10-27
What would change this read
The current bullish thesis would be undermined if the CPI-U index settles at a level lower than the current 337.511, such as 336.0 or lower, signaling a significant deceleration in inflationary pressures.
