Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel, former partners of "Big Short" investor Steve Eisman, have expressed concerns that a wave of major initial public offerings could negatively impact the stock market. Speaking on a podcast, the pair, who now manage Seawolf Capital, stated that a significant portion of their current capital is invested in gold.
The investors pointed to the upcoming IPO of artificial intelligence company Anthropic as a potential catalyst for market pressure. Collins noted that Anthropic is likely to seek public market access, adding another large block of stock to the market following the recent listing of SpaceX. He characterized the influx of new shares as "bad for the market because it's supply." Collins referenced historical market downturns in 1929 and 2000, attributing them to heavy stock issuance.
According to data from SIFMA, U.S. IPO issuance reached $137.6 billion through August, a 464.1% increase year-over-year. SpaceX, listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker SPCX, raised approximately $85.7 billion in net proceeds during its record-setting June IPO. Following the listing, an additional 911.5 million shares became available for trading in August due to insider unlocks.
Collins and Daniel also highlighted broader macroeconomic concerns regarding government debt and money creation. Daniel argued that rising interest costs make it difficult for the Treasury to manage debt without resorting to lower rates or money printing. Collins predicted that the government would likely print money in both a "status quo" scenario and if economic conditions deteriorate. He stated that this environment is the primary reason their capital is allocated to gold.
Goldman Sachs analysts have also raised similar questions regarding the market's ability to absorb new stock. IPO researcher Jay Ritter noted that high new-issue volume has historically predicted weaker future market returns, though he acknowledged the predictive power is limited. Conversely, Ritter pointed out that U.S. companies have returned approximately $1.6 trillion annually through dividends and buybacks, providing the market with substantial capacity to absorb new shares. Polymarket traders currently assign Anthropic a 59% chance of going public by October 31 and an 84% chance by year-end.
