Monas Financial is looking toward a decline in the KXBTC contract price, driven by emerging signals of selling pressure in the broader cryptocurrency market. The thesis relies on a specific chain of events originating from on-chain stablecoin activity on the Ethereum network. According to data from a stablecoin issuance pool, there has been a significant net minting of USDC over the last four hours, totaling -84.3 million. This figure is particularly notable for the inclusion of a massive single mint event of 12.9 million that occurred at 03:08Z.
This surge in USDC minting is interpreted as a precursor to market selling. The mechanism posits that when large amounts of stablecoin liquidity are injected into the ecosystem, it typically precedes selling pressure into spot markets as traders convert the newly minted tokens into assets like Bitcoin. This influx of sell-side liquidity places downward pressure on the BTC price.
Monas Financial connects this price pressure directly to the KXBTC contract. The thesis suggests that the increased selling pressure on spot exchanges leads to a higher probability of the settlement index (BRTI) trading below its current level. Consequently, this dynamic is expected to result in a decline of the KXBTC contract price.
Source: Etherscan API token transfer history for USDC contract address
What would change this read
However, this bearish outlook is contingent on the reversal of current stablecoin flows. If USDC net issuance on Ethereum turns positive—meaning the network enters a net burn phase—for the next 24-hour period, the thesis would be invalidated as the supply-side pressure would shift, removing the catalyst for a spot selloff.
