Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is preparing for a significant leadership transition as new CEO John Ternus takes the stage for his first major iPhone launch event on Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET. Prediction market data from Kalshi indicates traders are betting on the specific topics Ternus will address during the keynote, with the focus heavily centered on hardware innovation and internal software capabilities.
The most heavily traded topics center on the company's anticipated entry into the foldable phone market. The word "fold" or "folding" holds an 82% probability of being mentioned, while "foldable" follows at 77%. This aligns with Bloomberg reporting that the device will be named the iPhone Duo and is expected to start at roughly $2,000, with higher-storage versions potentially reaching $3,000. Conversely, the term "Ultra" has fallen to 32% after Bloomberg reported the device will not be branded as the iPhone Ultra.
Regarding software, "Apple Intelligence" is the second most likely topic at 77%, followed by "Siri" at 56%. However, traders assign low probabilities to mentions of external AI providers. The terms "OpenAI" or "ChatGPT" have only a 25% chance, while "Google" or "Gemini" sits at just 15%. Reuters has reported that Google's AI technology will power the revamped Siri, but traders appear to expect Ternus to emphasize Apple's own branding over the underlying technology providers.
The board also suggests a strategy of downplaying price and direct competition. The terms "afford" or "affordable" have a 20% chance of being used, and "Samsung" is the least likely rival to be mentioned at 10%. In the wearables sector, prediction markets show a shift toward specific health metrics; "heart rate" has jumped to 39%, matching the probability for "health" or "fitness" as traders anticipate a new Readiness app featuring blood-oxygen levels.
