According to a report from Benzinga, prediction markets are currently assigning high probabilities to several key announcements expected at Apple Inc.'s upcoming iPhone 18 launch event. The event, scheduled for Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET, will be led by Chief Executive John Ternus.
Regarding the flagship iPhone 18 Pro, the market on the Polygon-based platform Polymarket assigns a 99% chance that the device will launch at a price above $1,000. The probability that the price will exceed $1,150 is set at 96%. These wagers will settle based on the pre-tax launch price listed on Apple’s official U.S. store on the first day of sale.
There is near-universal consensus among bettors that Apple will unveil its first foldable smartphone at the event, with a 99% probability assigned to this launch. Market sentiment regarding the price of the foldable device is mixed, with a 95% chance it will debut above $1,800 and an 89% chance it will exceed $2,000. Media reports suggest the device, reportedly dubbed the iPhone Ultra, could start around $2,000 to $2,500, with higher-storage versions potentially reaching $3,000.
Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan has highlighted three items for investors to focus on: the first foldable iPhone, price increases across the Pro lineup, and the decision to move cheaper models to a spring launch. In terms of stock performance, Apple shares fell 0.04% in after-hours trading and closed 1.17% lower at $316.22 during Tuesday's regular session.
