Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) is expected to deploy its mobile network starting in rural areas rather than major metropolitan centers, according to an analysis by Recon Analytics founder Roger Entner. Speaking with Benzinga, Entner stated that Elon Musk will not target big-city consumers first, predicting a strategy that reverses the traditional approach of telecommunications carriers.
Entner noted that roughly 90% of Starlink’s current U.S. internet customers are located in rural regions. He argued that Musk will utilize this existing foothold to build a network where competitors are weakest. The analyst characterized this as an asymmetric strategy, suggesting SpaceX will focus on areas with lower population density before expanding toward cities.
Regarding the financial requirements for the network, Entner estimated that building a robust system could cost between $10 billion and $15 billion. This figure, which excludes spectrum purchases, is significantly lower than TD Cowen’s estimate of more than $80 billion for a competitive nationwide network. Entner also suggested SpaceX would develop its own cellular equipment rather than purchasing it from established manufacturers like Ericsson or Nokia, pointing to the company’s Starlink router as evidence of its manufacturing capabilities.
SpaceX’s recent acquisition of spectrum, reportedly valued at $8 billion, caused shares of incumbent carriers T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) to fall on October 9. Entner expressed concern for these incumbents, stating they should be worried about the move.
The analyst projected that the major components of the network will not come together until sometime between 2030 and 2032. He clarified that a limited service would not be available substantially sooner, citing the time required to integrate satellite connectivity technology into devices and satellites, as well as the need to build cell sites.
On the prediction market Polymarket, traders assigned SpaceX a 41% chance of offering a U.S. mobile plan by the end of 2027. The contract would resolve as a "Yes" if a publicly available plan is offered in just one state, even if the service relies on another carrier’s network.
